Probabilistic Modelling of COVID-19 Dynamic in the Context of Madagascar

We propose a probabilistic approach to modelling the propagation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Madagascar, with all its specificities. With strategy Malagasy state, which consists isolating suspected cases and hospitalized confirmed case, we get an epidemic model seven compartments: susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), Asymptomatic (A), Hospitalized (H), Cured (C) Death (D). In addition classical deterministic models used epidemiology, stochastic offers natural representation evolution COVID-19 epidemic. inferred official data provided by Command Center (CCO) between March August 2020. The basic reproduction number R0 other parameters were estimated Bayesian approach. developed algorithm that allows having temporal estimate this confidence intervals. values are slightly lower than international references. Generally, able obtain simple but effective describe spread disease.